Looking beyond flipping

It is a foregone conclusion that Reliance Power is going to be hugely subscribed. Infact, it has subscribed 4 times in 20 minutes of IPO opening with all the bids coming at upper band of Rs 450. It is a no brainer that it is going to list at a huge premium with the current grey market premium quoting at Rs 350. The strategy that many are using is to be flippers on the listing day. Added to that, is it a good idea to short Reliance Power in the futures market. Or is it foolhardy?
Compare the current Reliance Power IPO with Reliance Petro IPO in 2006. Reliance Industries (RIL) gained 16% in a month leading to the IPO start date (Apr 13 2006) and zoomed 31% between IPO start date (Apr 13 2006) and RPL listing date (11 May 2006). After RPL listing, RIL got into a downtrend. It lost 21% in less than a month breaching the stock price it quoted on RPL IPO open date (Apr 13 2006). Even RPL retraced to its issue price of Rs 60 in less than a month after listing at Rs 102. Will it be a similar story with Reliance Power? Doesn’t similar evidence call for shorting Reliance Power after its listing?
A similar comparison can be drawn for peers. When Reliance Industries ran up, ONGC did the same. When RIL cam down, ONGC followed suit perhaps quickly. ONGC gained 8% in a month leading to RPL IPO open date and gained 15% from IPO open date to listing date. What is interesting to note is that, it lost all its RPL IPO driven price in just 9 days. It lost one third of its price in one month after RPL listing. Will NTPC, the closest peer to REL have the same fate. All the ingredients for this scenario are there. REL and NTPC have gained 30% and 16% respectively in a month running to Reliance Power IPO opening today (15th Jan 2008). Is it a decent proposition to short REL and NTPC after Reliance Power listing in the first week of Feb 2008. Just look beyond the listing date and being a flipper.